CLEW Guide â NGOs become disillusioned with Polandâs new government
With its âCLEW Guideâ series, the °”ÍűžŁÀûapp newsroom and contributors from across Europe are providing journalists with a bird's-eye view of the climate-friendly transition from key countries and the bloc as a whole. You can also sign up to the weekly newsletter here to receive our "Dispatch from..."Ìęâ weekly updates from Germany, France, Italy, Croatia, Poland and the EU on the need-to-know about the continentâs move to climate neutrality.
(With contributions by Wojciech JakĂłbik)
Ìę
Content:
Ìę
Key background
-
The liberal, pro-European opposition in Poland won the election on 15 October. The new coalition, made up of former European Council president Donald Tusk's Civic Coalition (30.7 percent), the Third Way (14.4 percent) and the Left (8.6 percent), formed a government in December 2023. In the first months, it has not delivered on promises of presenting a plan of a speed-up of the energy transition. (mandated under the EU) was delivered, but the document is far from the final version and presents a rather conservative .
-
Poland was responsible for about 12% of total EU GHG emissions in 2021. Carbon emissions have fallen over 30 percent since peaking in the 1980s. Most of the reductions took place in the 1990s along with the fall of communism and a . Emissions levels have not changed significantly since 2001. Poland's current greenhouse gas emission reduction (for domestic transport, buildings, agriculture, small industry and waste) is 17.7 percent compared to 2005. It's far less than countries like Germany or Denmark (50%), but Poland's total emission in 2021 were actually slightly higher compared to 2005.
-
In 2023, Poland, from 70 percent the previous year to 61 percent. But even with the rise in renewables, electricity generation remains strongly reliant on coal.ÌęPolandâs power sector has in the European Union, making the coal phase-out a key challenge. The countryâs energy sector is dominated by big, state-owned or partially state-owned companies, like oil corporation Orlen or Polska Grupa Energetyczna (PGE), an energy company that owns coal plants and mines.
-
Poland managed to diversify its supply of gas, oil, and coal, after being heavily reliant on imports from Russia. In 2023, subsidies were put in place to keep gas and electricity prices down - but the. The new government. With to levels seen before the energy crisis, the most consumers will see a moderate rise of their bills from July (around 8 euros, or 15-20% of an average bill), and vulnerable households will get some form of subsidy.
-
when it comes to the effects of climate change in Poland, with threats to the agriculture and forestry sectors, which are both important for its economy. The winter of 2024 , so at least for the first months of the year .
-
Air pollution is a fuelled not just by cars, but also furnaces, as no other EU country uses nearly as much coal for heating.
Major transition stories
-
The burden of coal â coal power is the biggest question mark hanging over Polandâs transition. According to plans from the previous government, Poland would be the last EU country using coal for power generation well into the 2040s. With ageing plants and an looming, many coal plants will face closure earlier than planned, possibly threatening Poland with . The new ruling coalition has plans to accelerate deployment of renewables that, if realised, would make the need for coal marginal around the late 2030s. Just transition plans have been drawn for coal regions, but not all will receive EU funding â the lignite mine in the region of ; unlike , that is to close in the 2030s and will receive funding. With a rising price of CO2 in EU ETS, coal is driving up electricity prices.
-
Battery power-house â Poland is not among leading car producers in the EU, but there is a sector that stands to gain from the transition to electric vehicles: battery production. In April 2023 Poland overtook the U.S. as the country with. The sector sees the rise of EVâs and energy storage .
-
Going nuclear â Poland has not been able to successfully build a nuclear power plant despite ongoing efforts since the 1970s. The first initiative from 1971 made it to the construction phase, but communism and protests. A newer project, which began in 2009, . Now is the furthest any nuclear project has come since the fall of communism, and 2033 as the planned open date. Another public-private project being considered is a partnership with the . State oil company Orlen is planning to build a , and envisions more than 70 others across Poland in the coming decades.
-
Solar boom â While wind power capacity has , solar PV has exploded from a marginal capacity in 2018 to over , having supplied in 2023 (up from 5.7 percent in 2022) with both rooftop solar and utility-scale projects. However, this has , leading to , due to outdated regulation or just too much electricity for the grid to cope with. A (introducing solutions like cable pooling) is meant to aid the situation.
-
An end to conflicts with the EU â The two terms of the PiS/United Right rule were marked by many conflicts with the EU, centred around the rule of law and Poland's opposition to parts of the Green Deal. Many changes made by PiS to Polandâs legal system remain in place. But the European Commission assessed the measures taken so far by Donald Tuskâs government and agreed to . The first payment , consisting of 6.3 billion euros (from a total of planned âŹ60bn). Much of the total like subsidies for heater replacements and insulation, as well as offshore wind farms. This is expected to boost Poland's energy transition.Ìę
-
Heating in peril â 16 million Poles are keeping their homes warm in winter with district heating, the among all EU countries. A vast majority of district heating systems use coal and are considered inefficient. âunderinvested, outdated and unprofitable,â with customers bearing the brunt of rising cost.
-
Costly heat pumps â In 2022 to . However, in 2023 . The Polish government agreed to freeze electricity prices, but only up to a certain level of energy consumption. That meant a steep rise in electricity bills for homeowners using heat pumps that consumed power in excess of the subsidy limit. Sales of heat pumps . But in 2024 prices for electricity (used over the subsidy limit) .
-
Clean(er) air. Polandâs struggle with high air pollution has for years focused on heating, but now it is also starting to deal with cars. From June 2024, (Strefa czystego transportu - SCT) in the country. It will gradually ban older cars (especially diesel-powered ones) from the city centre. There will be, however, numerus exemptions. For example, the ban will not apply to the cityâs residents until 2028. Cracow, infamous in Poland for its smog levels, was the first to agree on a Clean Transport Zone, but the city bill was on formal grounds and the city will now work on a new bill, probably after April's local elections.
Sector overview
Energy
-
Responsible for 47.8 percent of total GHG
-
In 2023, coal was the main source of electricity (61 percent). It remained the largest proportion by far in the EU, despite the significant drop from 70 percent in 2022. Wind and solar rose from almost 16 percent to 21 percent and renewables in total reached 27 percent. The lignite plant PGE BeĆchatĂłw is the EU's , but now it has a plan to close down gradually until 2036 ().
-
Poland plans a gradual phase-out of coal, replacing it with a mix of renewables and nuclear generation. New fossil gas plants are also to be built, but after Russiaâs invasion of Ukraine.
-
In 2021, Poland adopted the with the following main targets: 32âŻpercent of renewables in electricity generation and no more than 56 percent of power from coal by 2030, and the first nuclear power plant starting operation in 2033. The plan has been and parliamentary as âunrealistic.â Donald Tuskâs government, ruling since December 2023, is working on an update to the document, expected to be presented in the second half of 2024.
-
In a for an update of Polandâs National energy and climate plan, presented to the European Commission, the climate ministry shows a âbusiness as usualâ scenario for the energy transition until 2030. In electricity production, it projects 50% of renewable generation by 2030 (compared to 27% in 2023), with a steady rise in solar PV and onshore wind, and first offshore wind farms in the Baltic coming online from 2028. A second, more ambitious scenario will be presented in the second quarter of 2024.
Industry
- Responsible for 14Ìępercent of total GHG .
- It covers about .
- Energy intensity of industry (per GDP unit) is above the EU average, but companies are increasingly looking and use zero-carbon energy, both and
- are comprised of both private domestic and international companies (like ArcelorMittal) and partially state-owned companies (like Orlen and Grupa Azoty).
- In 2022, energy-intensive industries . The high carbon intensity of the power sector is not only driving up prices, but also increasingly threatening their business as more and more clients are looking not just at price, but also at the carbon footprint.
Buildings
-
Responsible for .
-
Solid fuels (coal, wood) and district heating (mainly coal plants) dominate in the heating sector, but gas boiler use has increased in recent years and (according to incomplete government data).
-
The energy crisis has , but they remain a small percentage of all installed heating systems.
-
Until recently, Poles as 87âŻpercent of the total amount of coal burned by EU households, and almost in Poland are characterized by lowenergy efficiency. In 2022 the government for coal sold to households due to the energy crisis, and later extended that until the end of 2023.Ìę
-
The current government targets are: coal phase-out in city households by 2030 and outside cities by 2040, with all heating covered by âlow emission sourcesâ or district heating by 2040 (experts point out that this ). The sets a target of renovating and insulating 236 thousand buildings per year between 2020-2030, with numbers increasing in the next decades.
-
Polish cities have some of the worst air quality levels in Europe with buildings being (mainly solid fuels furnaces)
-
Almost 16 billion PLN (3.6 billion euro) contracted for household ; but
Mobility
-
Domestic transport is responsible emissions and is the only sector that had its emissions increase between 1990 and 2021.
-
In 2019 the government adopted the. It assumes an 8âŻpercent rise in CO2 emissions from transport by 2030 (compared to 2017) and has no specific target for the number of EVs.Ìę In a update to Polandâs National energy and climate plan, Donald Tuskâs government concludes that it will be âimpossibleâ for Poland to meet the EUâs target of 29% of renewable share in the transport sector - it projects a 17,7% share by 2030.
-
The PiS government, in its official plans, was aiming for zero-emissions public transport in the biggest cities by 2030, as stated in Energy policy of Poland (). In 2016, then-prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki announced that there will be one million electric cars in Poland by 2025, . The new coalition agreement contains a point on improving public transportation system, but nothing on EVs.
-
Transport is the area of the transition which the United Right government , at least rhetorically, promoting electromobility and even initiating Now the projectâs future is in question as the new coalition will be reviewing controversial initiatives from PiS era and âIzera,â which the then-opposition politicians for a long time.
-
Poland is the EUâs , but the industry
-
Poland , and second-largest in the world (after China).
Agriculture
-
Responsible for emissions in 2021, mostly in the form of nitrous oxide and methane (caused in around equal direct livestock emissions).
-
There is no governmental CO2 reduction target; the government .
-
The government in rural areas and providing low carbon energy.
-
The effects of climate change, especially drought,
-
Like in much of Europe, big farmer protests took place in Poland in the first months of 2024. , but opposition to elements of the EU Green Deal were also among the reasons for the protest. Agriculture minister CzesĆaw Siekierski (PSL/Third way) also , and the government
Land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF)
- Forests and other areas remain a carbon sink and removed . Around 30% of Poland is covered by forest (a number ) and around 80 percent of them is state owned and managed by a special public company, State Forests National Forest Holding. In 2022 State Forest had a from selling wood. In recent years, the company has come under criticism from NGOs and private citizens for a number of issues, to
- The level of CO2 removal by forests has been decreasing over the last decade, with a sharp fall in recent years (from over 40 million tons to just over 20 million tons). According to Poland's the main reasons are due to the long-term effects of disasters like permanent drought and storms with strong wind causing trees to fall.
- The United Right government has been pointing to forest sequestration as a climate solution,; but sequestration levels have been falling and in 2021 it amounted to only 52Ìępercent of Polandâs target for 2030.
-
The United Right government and have criticised the EU Nature Restoration Law and other EU projects aimed at improving forest protection. The new government replaced State Forest director and United Right politician JĂłzef Kubica. The new leadership promises to. In one of the first decisions of the new climate and environment ministry, logging was temporarily halted or reduced in 1.3 percent of
Find an interviewee
Find an interviewee from Poland in the CLEW expert database. The list includes researchers, politicians, government agencies, NGOs and businesses with expertise in various areas of the transition to climate neutrality from across Europe.
Get in touch
As a Berlin-based energy and climate news service, we at CLEW have an almost 10-year track record of supporting high-quality journalism on Germanyâs energy transition and Europeâs move to climate neutrality. For support on your next story, get in touch with our team of journalists.
Tipps and tricks
- °äłą·Ą°Ââs Easy Guide to Germanyâs transition with background information and links to key energy and climate data.
